"How many young players undertaking a scholarship 'make it' to the professional level?" This is an important topic because, in my view, it is one area shrouded in misinformation. Most prominent among this misinformation is the claim Michael Calvin made in 2017 that:
"Only 180 of the 1.5 million boys who play organised youth football in England will become a Premier League pro. That's a success rate of 0.012 per cent".
These claims do little to advance our understanding of this topic and, therefore, are of little use for players who are trying to prepare for their careers or the parents and guardians supporting them.
Let me explain the problem with this analysis. First, it assumes the aim of every young boy playing organised youth football in England is to become a professional footballer in the Premier League. It is akin to arguing that everybody starting to play the guitar when they are young wants to become a professional musician. They don't, many do it for fun. Second, perhaps more importantly, there are only a certain number of players who can be employed as a footballer in the Premier League. 20 squads of 25 players means the number who can realistically be employed as a player in the Premier League is around 500 each season. What would be a perfect success rate given these numbers? Even if a new 500 players entered the professional ranks each year that would be a success rate of 0.033% and would leave the previous 500 players out of a club. Third, only measuring those who play in the Premier League disregards those who are employed in other leagues or abroad for example. Finally, it takes a very simple view of what it means to 'make it'. So, let us move on to a more detailed look at this, to unearth some of the answers in a more detailed way.
